Global warming disproportionately affects Africa, despite the continent has only contributed around 7% of cumulative global greenhouse gas emissions since the mid-19th century, compared with 45% from developed countries. As agriculture constitutes the backbone of African economies, the threat caused by climate change puts food security for millions at risk. Adopting resilient agricultural technologies is essential to mitigate the impact.
Africa is among the regions most vulnerable to climate change. The continent’s average temperature has risen by 1.4°C since pre-industrial times, exceeding the global average rise of 1.1°C. With climates ranging from the arid Sahara to the humid tropics, Africa is experiencing significant shifts in both temperature and precipitation patterns.
According to IPCC climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, temperatures in Africa are expected to keep rising, with North Africa and West Africa being especially at risk. In the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5), average annual temperatures could increase by over +5°C in some regions (see fig 1 and 2).
West Africa, for example, has already seen mean annual temperatures rise by 1 to 3°C since the 1970s, with heatwaves becoming more frequent and severe. In the region, the number of days of potentially lethal heat could reach :
- 50 to 150 per year for a global warming of 1.6°C.
- 100 to 250 per year for a global warming of 2.5°C, with the greatest increases in coastal areas.
In terms of maximum temperatures during the hottest months, certain areas, particularly in the Saharan and Sahelian regions, could see temperatures exceeding 47°C (see fig 3 and 4).
Precipitation patterns are expected to change significantly (see fig 5). In West Africa, droughts are projected to worsen. Rainfall decreases could range from 2.8% to 18.6% in the most pessimistic scenarios, as seen in projections for Ghana (see fig 6). Meanwhile, extreme rainfall events, already more frequent, are likely to increase further (see fig 8).
Regions like East Africa and the eastern Sahel could see an increase in average annual rainfall by up to 1000 mm (see fig 5). The wettest months may experience rainfall surges of 20% to 50% in certain areas. This will heighten the risk of major floods, like those seen in Ethiopia (see fig 7).
African agriculture heavily depends on rainfall, with around 90% of crops being rain-fed. This makes agricultural systems vulnerable to climate-induced risks. The effects of global warming on yields will vary across Africa. In Eastern and Southern Africa, the growing season could shorten by 8 to 18 days by 2050 and 19 to 34 days by 2090. In contrast, West Africa will see a less pronounced reduction, with a shortening of 2 to 8 days by 2050 and 2-17 days by 2090.
Agricultural yields are expected to decline. Staple crops like maize, millet, and sorghum will be most affected. By 2050, maize yields in Eastern and Southern Africa may drop by 6%, millet by 27%, and sorghum by 16%. However, wheat might benefit, with a yield increase. By the end of the century, 31% of rainfed potential production in these regions will suffer from both lower yields and decreased stability.
In West Africa, cereal yields will decrease by -3% by 2050 and -24% by 2090. The impact of climate change differs by crop and region. In Niger and Nigeria, millet and sorghum may benefit from increased rainfall, balancing losses in Ghana and Mali. By 2090, 41% of rainfed cereal production in West Africa will see both lower yields and less stability compared to baseline conditions.
In addition to temperature and precipitation changes, African soils are already poor in fertility. They will degrade further due to erosionand drought. These factors will worsen food insecurity. As Africa’s population grows, food demand will increase by 160% by 2050. This will put pressure on already fragile agricultural systems.
Rainfall is crucial for African agriculture, as about 90% of crops rely on it. This makes agricultural systems vulnerable to climate-induced risks. The effects of global warming on yields will vary across Africa. In Eastern and Southern Africa, the growing season could shorten by 8 to 18 days by 2050 and 19 to 34 days by 2090. In contrast, West Africa will see a less pronounced reduction, with a shortening of 2 to 8 days by 2050 and 2-17 days by 2090.
Agricultural yields are expected to decline. Staple crops like maize, millet, and sorghum will be most affected. By 2050, maize yields in Eastern and Southern Africa may drop by 6%, millet by 27%, and sorghum by 16%. Wheat may benefit, with an increase in yield. By the end of the century, 31% of rainfed potential production in these regions will suffer from both lower yields and decreased stability.
In West Africa, cereal yields will decrease by -3% by 2050 and -24% by 2090. The impact of climate change differs by crop and region. In Niger and Nigeria, millet and sorghum may benefit from increased rainfall, balancing losses in Ghana and Mali. By 2090, 41% of rainfed cereal production in West Africa will experience both lower yields and less stability compared to baseline conditions.
In addition to temperature and precipitation changes, African soils are already poor in fertility. They will degrade further due to erosionand drought. These factors will worsen food insecurity. As Africa’s population grows, food demand will increase by 160% by 2050. This will put pressure on already fragile agricultural systems.